uggghhhh

I ended my session down tonight. I didnt start off so hot, losing a buyin within first 20 hands to a player who was playing a real fishy game. I was in the BB and flopped 2 pair and he hit a straight. He had been bluffing alot, he was actually the button in the hand and I checked it to him, when he overbet the pot I decided I was going to play sherriff and put him to the test. I wasnt too happy with the result. I didnt fill up and was down a buyin.

I also ran my QQ into AA, (bunk) and finally I ran KK into a flopped set.

I was able to recoup one buyin, but my table ended up being rather strange. I should have left and found another table, but I was hoping for the chance to bust the fishy player. I believe that most of the $ I won back was from him, but he started to straighten up. I let it go and might look for him later.

Its kinda funny b/c my avatar on titan is a woman (mainly b/c I havent changed it from the default). This guy made some comments about "she bluffs alot" and that I am easy to read. It cracked me up, maybe he thought my value bets were bluffs b/c I had position on him and he constantly faced my reraises. I just found it entertaining.

I also played a $20 180 MTT on stars. I only won one hand that showed down, and that was early. I really never got anything to come, and busted out in 55th place. I had a crazy table, the VPIP was ~18%, and the only LAG was 2 seats to my right. I ended up getting into my final hand with him. I felt like he might be on a steal for the blinds, he had been raising every unraised pot when he had position. Anyway here is how that hand went down.

POKERSTARS GAME #4534636442: TOURNAMENT #22581294, HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL V (75/150) - 2006/04/05 - 22:31:06 (ET)
Table '22581294 10' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Zizz (3965 in chips)
Seat 2: shane2886 (4555 in chips)
Seat 3: sidelineskid (5510 in chips)
Seat 4: scaryjerry1 (1935 in chips)
Seat 6: Beebs (3150 in chips)
Seat 7: Bhorse (670 in chips)
Seat 8: kbeyer (4645 in chips)
Seat 9: aqua44 (6795 in chips)
scaryjerry1: posts small blind 75
Beebs: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to scaryjerry1 [Ah 9h]
Bhorse: folds
kbeyer: folds
aqua44: folds
Zizz: folds
shane2886: raises 300 to 450
sidelineskid: folds
scaryjerry1: raises 1485 to 1935 and is all-in
Beebs: folds
shane2886: calls 1485
*** FLOP *** [8h 6c Js]
*** TURN *** [8h 6c Js] [2c]
*** RIVER *** [8h 6c Js 2c] [2h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
scaryjerry1: shows [Ah 9h] (a pair of Deuces)
shane2886: shows [Jd Qd] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)
shane2886 collected 4020 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4020 | Rake 0
Board [8h 6c Js 2c 2h]
Seat 1: Zizz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: shane2886 showed [Jd Qd] and won (4020) with two pair, Jacks and Deuces
Seat 3: sidelineskid (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: scaryjerry1 (small blind) showed [Ah 9h] and lost with a pair of Deuces
Seat 6: Beebs (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: Bhorse folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: kbeyer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: aqua44 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I was able to recoup my buyin by playing a couple of hands on a $25NL table. Obviously, losing any amount and having to make it up, isnt as good as adding a return on investment. I'll take it though and live to fight another day.

I might go ahead and play the BPT event tommorrow night. It seems that stars out the event in the private tourney section, so it might not be to full. Those tournaments dont show in the regular category.

Anyway the damage has been done, but nothing crippling tonight. I'll chalk it up to variance. I am comfortable with the plays that I made, even though I lost $. I cant base my analysis on the results alone. I didnt play recklessly, and am confident that I made the right plays based on the information I had available.

I'm not real keen on playing just one table, but am going to continue to play 6 max for a couple more weeks and see what I can do with it. When I play a full table, I dont mind playing 3-5 tables, but with a short handed table its more imperative to focus on the action, and dissect your opponents.

I've been thinking about a probability theory for MTT & STT's. I am going to try and refine my thoughts and work out a formula. I think it is a rather interesting approach to coin flips and winning a series of coin flips. The effect that your chip equity has on taking on these situations, and the expected value of making these moves.

Its really just something I have been thinking about, but havent put down in text. I dont think my brief description above is even an accurate representation, so I want to refine it a little more. It might be a theory that I test out in one of the $4 180 man MTT's stars holds during the afternoons.

Thanks for reading!